Jul 01, 2023 Xabar QOLDIRISH

Zhongtai Futures: The Asoslari Of Silicon Are Weak And It Difficult To Change The Downward Trend

Markaz yangiliklari (data from Ferroalloy Online) : ① {{0}day silikon marganets 6517# Ningxia, Ichki Mongoliya narxi {{'b2}}} yuan/ton; Guizhou, Guangxi price %6550-6600} yuan/ton. (Cash factory offer, shu jumladan soliq, yuan/ton). ② 3rd 72# ferrosilicon: Anyang 6500-6600 (naqd pul soliqdan tashqari), Shanxi %{6600-6800, Ningxia %6850-6900}, Ningxia {{8}%} %1 7d, Qinghai %{6750-6850, Gansu 6800-6900} , Ichki Mongoliya %%{6800-6900 (cash including tax natural block zavod%, yuan/ton). ③3 kun 75# ferrosilicon: Shaanxi 7000-7100, Ningxia {%% 7b15}}}, Qinghai %{7000-7100, Gansu %{7200-7300}%% 2c Ichki Mongoliya %%7200-7300} (cash including tax natural block zavod, yuan/ton)%; FOB: 72%% 23{1280-131}, 75#1350-1380} (USD/ton, soliq kiritilgan).

Early comment: Early return of the 3rd week, double silicon disk high open lower, the overall continuation of last Friday's decline. From the cost side, the port manganese ore quotation is still mainly negative decline, chemical coke, carbon, silica are temporarily stable, power is temporarily stable, from the expected point of view, manganese ore quotation is weak and difficult to change, carbon orchid by the strength of coal prices and spot losses, social inventory is general, need to pay attention to the late carbon quotation can be raised and expected increase range, At the same time, we should pay attention to the adjustment of electricity charges in northwest China and the situation of hydropower generation in Southwest China. From the supply and demand side, the supply and start of silicon and manganese are at a high level, and the weekly start of ferrosilicon has rebounded. Under the pattern of oversupply of double silicon, the demand side has not seen significant force, and there is obvious downward pressure on the double silicon disk surface, and the downward pressure of ferrosilicon is greater than that of manganese silicon. In a comprehensive view, the fundamentals of silicon are still weak, if the orchid carbon more than expected to increase the quotation, may be able to bring short-term rebound to the disk, but the overall is still difficult to change the downward trend, ferrosilicon in the medium and long term to meet high altitude; There is not much space above the start of manganese silicon, and the impact on silicon manganese is greater than that of iron silicon under the expectation of power limiting caused by the summer kurtosis in Inner Mongolia, and although there is still oversupply under the high start of work, the spot liquidity is still ok, so it is recommended that the layout of manganese silicon far month multi-single on the low in the medium and long term.

Trend: 09 ferrosilicon e'tibor to'laydi the bosimi oralig'i of 7b{1}} yuan/ton, va marganets silikon has a uzoq muddatli va past layout of manganese silicon far month.

Arbitraj: Qachon temir silikon rebounds yoki marganets silikon keskin tushadi 2c do the double silicon spread (temir silikon - marganets silikon).

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